TL;DR yes, there is still opportunities; and no, it’s not the same playbook as before

2024 has been a bull run for crypto, but a hard mode one for crypto investors. A lot of projects have emerged, most of them busted, some survived and very few thrived. Some people are saying that they don’t feel it’s very bullish, some are putting money in with nothing more than a contract address, while others are declaring we are close to the end of the bull run.

I think the bull market is here, it’s just not evenly distributed.

2024 is a crypto bull run by all the metrics — Bitcoin price crossed $100k USD for the first time, a 2.5x increase from the beginning of the year; highest trading volume on centralized exchanges trading volume recorded over 70 trillion USD in 2024, surpassing the previous record in 2021; decentralized exchanges have also taken off with the hype of memecoins, taking up more than 10% of centralized exchange spot trading volume.

On the other hand, numbers are less encouraging given the context of a bull market. New token listings on CEX have generated much worse return compared to 2021 — take Binance for example, majority of the new tokens listed on 2024 are currently generating negative ROI today, with several launchpool projects down by over 50%; the situation is similar if not worse on other centralized exchanges; VC fundraising has retreated back to the level of 2020, which also led to a decrease in deal number and size; Ethereum, once the favor of crypto investors, are now mockingly called “a stablecoin at $3,000” due to its poor price performance in competition with Solana, which housed the most popular memecoins including $TRUMP.

What happened in 2024

Looking back on crypto 2024, there are several observations that we think are worth noting, as they might have defined the changing point of crypto industry going forward.

1. The ETFs

   Bitcoin and Ethereum are accessible to Wall Street for the first time.

   In 2024, Bitcoin ETF has a cumulative spot trading volume of over 600 billion USD and a combined AUM of over 100 billion USD, making IBIT issued by Blackrock the fastest growing ETF in history.

   
   

2. New models emerged in 2024

   Even though there is no industry wide “xx summer” as most people were expecting, there are still several new models that emerged during this bull run.

   Ethena - disrupting traditional arbitrage strategy profits through stablecoin issuance and yield generation. The protocol combines delta-neutral positions with traditional arbitrage strategies to generate sustainable yields. Their USDe stablecoin maintains its peg through a combination of ETH-collateralized positions and automated market operations. Within months of launch, Ethena accumulated over $5.7B in Total Value Locked (TVL) and established itself as a major player in the DeFi ecosystem.

   Arbitrage has been a commonly used strategy for crypto funds, and it generates a yield between 10-30% depending on market conditions. However, it was not easily accessible to retail investors. Ethena democratized profits from arbitragers and distribute it through its stablecoin.

   Polymarket - prediction market has not been a new concept in crypto but 2024 is the year we see prediction markets really taking off. Polymarket is a decentralized prediction market platform that enables users to bet on real-world event outcomes using blockchain technology. In 2024, it gained significant attention during the U.S. presidential election, with its election-related markets reportedly handling up to $3.2 billion in bets. This substantial activity underscored Polymarket's role in providing transparent and accessible platforms for gauging public sentiment and forecasting event outcomes.

   Pump.fun - as the most popular meme launching platform, Pump generated more than 400 million USD in revenue in 2024. By combining bonding curve with DEX, Pump offers an easy way for anyone to launch assets on-chain and at the same time attract early adopters. Pump both benefited from and contributed to the hype of meme coins in 2024.

   With as little as 0.02 SOL (~$4), you could issue your own meme on Pump. And you could also invest in a meme coin with market cap of less than 100k — hoping that it will pump to over 100M as fartcoin did. The game is definitely more attractive than investing in the next modular blockchain to anyone who’s just looking to earn some quick cash in crypto.

3. VCs (and VC coins) having a hard time

   2024 is probably the most difficult bull run for crypto venture funds.

   In 2024, venture capital (VC) investment in crypto hit its lowest point since 2020. Only 79 new investment funds were created, raising $5.1 billion total - much less than during the peak years of 2021-2022.

   
   

   Moreover, the funding that goes to crypto VC are concentrated to the top ones. At least 10 crypto-focused venture funds that actively invest in crypto and blockchain-focused startups raised more than $100m for new funds in 2024. Institutional investors looking into investing in crypto might find it easier to buy ETF than to scrutinize fund managers.

   
   

   As a result, the amount of money invested & number of deals both fail to catch up with the previous bull run in 2021. In the meantime, the price performance of VC coins didn’t help in contrast to memecoins. If retails are shying away from VC coins, it makes it harder for VCs to justify their investment decisions — given that most of the projects’ revenue come from token sales at the moment.

   
   

   Despite the challenged faced by crypto VCs and VC-backed projects, I think it’s a good (and healthy) case for the industry going forward. It forces investors and builders to rethink what is the value that they bring to the market. If any random project could raise millions, why would anyone bothered to solve the hard problem anyways?

   
   

Looking forward

You cannot be trading memecoins all day and claiming that you are building a new financial system.

People who work in crypto generally believe that we are building a new financial system on chain, offering more accessible financial services to the unbanked, as well as an alternative to the pubic to fight against fiat money printers. Although I feel the above statement has its merit, it is two (or more) different groups in crypto. The meme traders, who don’t really care about fundamental technology or product, cannot claim that they are contributing to the new financial system. And the actual builders who believe in the vision, might not be in the spotlight of CT, and might not be rewarded for what they’ve built since not every product can find PMF. I’m not against memecoin - it might offer a way for more people to be aware of crypto and to attract more capital into crypto space in general. But for crypto to flourish and to be taken seriously as the potential new financial system, we would need more than memes.

What will be left from 2024 bull market?

1. More advancement in regulations, spurring more opportunities in financial services

   The US welcomed its first crypto-friendly president, who not only started a DeFi project but also issued memecoins for himself and wife. The Trump administration in 2025 has signaled a crypto-friendly stance with plans to reduce regulatory burdens, establish a federal Bitcoin reserve, and integrate cryptocurrencies into the traditional financial system. Key initiatives include appointing David O. Sacks as a Crypto Czar to develop a clear legal framework and allowing banks to trade and invest in digital assets. These measures aim to position the U.S. as a global leader in cryptocurrency innovation and adoption.

   This is probably the most beneficial for crypto projects providing financial services like RWA, stablecoins and payments, which were previously restricted by the SEC.

   We would probably also see more retail investors coming into crypto due to the relaxed regulations and the signalling effect of $TRUMP, making consumer crypto product gain more momentum in customer acquisition.

2. Continued improvement on the proven tracks like infrastructure and DeFi

   Although the 2024 bull run didn’t give us as much innovation as expected, there is still a steady improvement in the area where PMF is proven, like infrastructure and DeFi. Solana is on track pursuing the vision of “on-chain Nasdaq” and the Firedancer upgrade from Jump trading will help boost throughputs to accommodate traditional finance use cases. Ethereum completed Dencun upgrade, reducing fees on L2 networks and bringing new opportunities for scaling. DeFi TVL more than doubled since the beginning of 2024, with liquid staking protocols like Lido emerging as the top TVL projects.

3. Decentralized exchange (DEX) is the new centralized exchange (CEX)

   Towards the end of 2024, we’ve seen a tremendous shift from trading on centralized exchanges to trading on decentralized exchanges, especially for memecoins. Since most of the memecoins are first launched on DEX, traders prefer to build positions early, before the token is listed by a CEX. Previously, DEX has been criticized by its poor user experience, high cost and slow execution speed. With the improvement on the blockchain infrastructure, product design and on-chain liquidity, the new generation of DEX like Hyperliquid will create a strong competition to the incumbent centralized exchanges.

And how do we prepare for 2025?

The best is yet to come, better be well positioned for it

1. The abundance of code thanks to AI

   Code is no longer a scarcity in crypto, it is now easier than ever to build your own crypto application, but true product-market fit (PMF) remains elusive. While the number of on-chain users and transactions was briefly scarce, it was quickly manipulated through points, quests, and “intentionally designed” sybil attacks. In contrast, PMF is genuinely scarce, as there are no shortcuts to achieving it, and the relentless grind deters 99% of builders.

2. Hold on to certainties while embrace uncertainties

   In the last two bull-bear cycles, primary market investments have not always been about project fundamentals. With the abundance of liquidity, as long as a project could be listed on a major centralized exchanges and offer a friendly unlock schedule to investors, it is unlikely that the investment will be underwater. In this current bull run, we observe a drastic decline in liquidity for VC backed projects due to trading behavior shifting from CEX to on-chain. In Q1 2025 alone, we are expecting several projects that raised hundreds of millions of dollars launching tokens, yet the market seems to be not so keen on these launches. For crypto investments, there is diminishing premium on liquidity compared to equity investment. It is possible for your token investment to go to zero, even if the token is issued. Therefore, valuation for token projects need to be discounted to match equity projects, since the liquidity premium is gone.

   But the good thing about crypto investment is still the smooth synergy between primary and secondary markets, compared to traditional equity investing. As crypto investors, we should leverage on the certainties (like beta) that crypto offers, to improve the odds of betting on the uncertainties.

3. Keep an open mind

   Even though it’s only been 15 years since the publication Bitcoin whitepaper, there has already been a lot of preconceptions in the industry. When a new thing is introduced, some OGs’ first reaction is not to embrace it but to reject it. “It cannot be, it has never happened in the previous cycle” or “there must be an altcoin bull run, there always has been”. It’s difficult to unlearn the past experience, but it’s also important to keep an open mind.

It’s still early.